Week 7 Recap: Five Green Days and a Wider Lead
This was the kind of week the market used to feel like it owed us. The S&P 500 went up every single day, finished at +4.52% on the week, and every one of the portfolios came out ahead of it. After the chop in late March, a clean five-day rally feels almost suspicious. I will take it anyway.
Week 7 Performance
| Dates | S&P 500 | Ensemble | Growth Eval | ML Model #1 | ML Model #2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 (4/13 – 4/17) | +4.52% | +6.31% | +7.42% | +6.42% | +5.93% |
Daily Breakdown
| Date | S&P 500 | Ensemble | Growth Eval | ML Model #1 | ML Model #2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/13 | +0.98% | +2.32% | +2.38% | +2.36% | +2.41% |
| 4/14 | +1.22% | +1.49% | +1.97% | +1.55% | +1.51% |
| 4/15 | +0.79% | +0.15% | +0.18% | -0.15% | -0.36% |
| 4/16 | +0.25% | +0.44% | +1.10% | +0.64% | +0.49% |
| 4/17 | +1.21% | +1.76% | +1.60% | +1.87% | +1.77% |
Cumulative Since Launch (3/2)
| S&P 500 | Ensemble | Growth Eval | ML Model #1 | ML Model #2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | +3.46% | +12.85% | +13.56% | +14.61% | +17.00% |
Monday and Tuesday set the tone with two solid up-days for the index, and the portfolios more than kept pace, riding their higher-beta names to 1.5-2.4% gains on each session. Wednesday was the one quiet spot. The S&P 500 was up 0.79%, but two of the portfolios printed small losses while the other two barely moved. That happens. When the market is broadening out and 503 names rally together, a 15-stock portfolio can lag for a day, and that is fine. Thursday and Friday brought the portfolios right back into the lead.
The standout was Growth Evaluator at +7.42% on the week, which is the first time it has been on top of any week so far. The rule-based scorer leans into earnings quality and revenue growth, and with Q1 reports starting to roll in, it makes some sense that companies showing up well on those rules would catch a bid first.
Cumulative since launch, the spread between the portfolios and the S&P 500 has widened to roughly 9-13 percentage points. Eight weeks ago, I was hoping to be ahead by a couple. Now I am torn between enjoying it and reminding myself how quickly that can flip. Both feelings are correct.
Two Weeks Until Rebalance
The first scheduled rebalance is two weeks out — Thursday, April 30. That is 42 trading days after launch, which is the cadence the production models were tuned around. Until then, the picks stay the same and the only thing that moves them is the market. After 4/30, every portfolio swaps for a fresh top-15 set generated by the models, scored on the close of Wednesday 4/29.
I am also doing a bit of housekeeping research in the background to figure out whether any of the portfolios should change models at the rebalance. More on that next week or the one after, depending on what the data tells me.
Q1 earnings season ramps up further next week. SPY is at +3.46% since launch, which is much better than where it was two weeks ago. The market remembered which way is up. Let's see if it keeps remembering.
Thanks for reading!