Week 3 Recap: Holding Strong Until Friday's Sell-Off
Well, as the war with Iran rages on with no signs of letting up, so will the market turmoil. Add that to the fact that the Fed decided to keep rates steady for now. The war in Iran is affecting energy prices, making inflation a greater concern, with some analysts predicting that the Fed may raise rates before cutting them.
Week 3 Performance
| Dates | S&P 500 | Ensemble | Growth Eval | ML Model #1 | ML Model #2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 (3/16 – 3/20) | -2.07% | -0.93% | -0.96% | -0.43% | +1.51% |
Daily Breakdown
| Date | S&P 500 | Ensemble | Growth Eval | ML Model #1 | ML Model #2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/16 | +0.74% | +1.93% | +1.97% | +2.12% | +2.26% |
| 3/17 | +0.26% | +0.72% | +0.63% | +0.98% | +1.85% |
| 3/18 | -1.40% | -0.54% | -0.54% | -0.71% | -0.53% |
| 3/19 | -0.25% | +0.27% | +0.02% | +0.74% | +1.76% |
| 3/20 | -1.43% | -3.24% | -2.97% | -3.47% | -3.71% |
Cumulative Since Launch (3/2)
| S&P 500 | Ensemble | Growth Eval | ML Model #1 | ML Model #2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -4.44% | -1.76% | -1.04% | -1.41% | +1.83% |
For the most part, the portfolios have demonstrated considerable resiliency compared to the overall market. With the S&P 500 being down a whopping 4.44% since our first trading day on March 2nd, the Ensemble is down 1.76%, outpacing the S&P 500 by 2.68%. Interestingly, my experimental model is the only model that is positive at +1.83%.
Sadly, I assume continued turmoil until some sort of diplomatic solution unfolds in the Middle East, which I assume will not happen for months.
Sentiment is not something I have yet factored into our models, though I was considering adding it at some point. The current world situation may make me prioritize that sooner rather than later.
Thanks for reading!